Global production is expected to rise, with the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization projecting a record 556.4 million tonnes in the 2025 to 2026 season
[MANILA] The Philippines plans to broadly extend its ban on rice imports until April to support farmers in the world’s biggest buyer of the grain, a move that’s likely to put further pressure on global prices.
The South-east Asian nation will only allow inbound shipments for about a month in January, when it needs to bring in at least 300,000 tons of the grain from overseas, Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr told lawmakers at a hearing at the House of Representatives on Monday (Oct 6). The restriction, which was supposed to last for just 60 days, started on Sep 1.
Manila’s move to extend the curb aims to protect local farmers, especially during the peak harvest season. But globally, it could help keep supplies high and push prices even lower for a crop that feeds billions across Asia and Africa and provides as much as half of the daily calorie needs for people in parts of South-east Asia.
The even longer withdrawal of the Philippines from the market will add “further bearishness” for rice prices, which had already been trending lower because of expectations of good crops across major origins and weak demand from key destinations, said Nitin Gupta, deputy country head at Olam Agri India.
Asia’s benchmark rice price recently fell to an eight-year low, helped by strong monsoon planting in top exporter India. Global production is expected to rise, with the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization projecting a record 556.4 million tonnes in the 2025 to 2026 season, which would further lift stockpiles.
This is a stark reversal for prices which surged to a 15-year high in 2024 on strong demand and supply concerns.
By the end of September, the Philippines had imported 3.5 million tonnes of rice, about 800,000 tonnes more than what was needed, Tiu Laurel said. The country was projected to buy five million tonnes of rice in the 2025 to 2026 season, topping purchases by importers such as China, the US Department of Agriculture forecast last month. BLOOMBERG
