[MOSCOW / LONDON] Opec+ will likely approve another oil production increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day at its meeting next Sunday (Oct 5), as rising oil prices encourage the group to try to further regain market share, three sources familiar with the talks said.
Opec+ has reversed its strategy of output cuts from April and has already raised quotas by more than 2.5 million barrels per day, representing about 2.4 per cent of world demand, to boost market share and after coming under pressure from US President Donald Trump to lower oil prices.
Eight Opec+ countries will hold an online meeting on Oct 5 to decide on November output. Opec+ pumps about half of the world’s oil and includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia and other allies.
Opec headquarters and authorities in Saudi Arabia did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
What have oil prices been doing?
Oil prices have fallen from over US$80 per barrel at the start of the year but have mostly traded in a narrow range of US$60-to-US$70 per barrel since Opec began production increases in April.
On Friday, prices rose to their highest since Aug 1, hitting levels above US$70 per barrel, supported by Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure which disrupted refining and shipments from one of the world’s biggest oil exporters.
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The group’s total output reductions amounted at their peak to 5.85 million bpd, made up of three different elements – voluntary cuts of 2.2 million bpd, plus 1.65 million bpd by eight members, and another 2 million bpd by the whole group.
Further increase to be discussed
The eight producers plan to fully unwind one element of those cuts – 2.2 million bpd – by the end of September. For October, they started removing a second layer, of 1.65 million bpd, with an increase of 137,000 bpd.
Opec+ also gave the United Arab Emirates approval to boost production by 300,000 bpd between April and September.
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The November increase to be discussed on Oct 5 will amount to at least 137,000 bpd, equal to the October hike, the three sources said. A final decision has not been made, the sources said.
Opec+ hikes have fallen short of the pledged amounts because most members are pumping at capacity, analysts have said.
Opec+’s third group-wide layer of cuts of two million bpd is due to last until the end of 2026. REUTERS
