July 22 : IBM cut its annual revenue growth forecast on Wednesday, days after shocking Wall Street with a warning that corporate spending was shifting toward AI-focused data-center gear at the expense of its software and mainframe computers.
Shares of the Armonk, New York-based company rose more than 3 per cent in extended trading.
The company also missed profit and revenue expectations for the second quarter ended June 30, but executives sought to reassure shareholders that customers prioritized spending on AI in the quarter but were not looking to move away from mainframes in the longer term.
CEO Arvind Krishna said last week IBM had “faltered” in adapting and “numerous large deals” had slipped, sending the company’s shares down 25 per cent, its steepest one-day fall in more than a century.
The forecast spotlights how the scramble for AI hardware has stoked investor fears that companies rushing to secure scarce servers, chips and networking gear could be cutting back on spending on the wider software sector.
IBM now expects 2026 revenue growth between 4 per cent and 5 per cent, down from its previous expectations of more than 5 per cent growth. The midpoint of the forecast is below analysts’ average estimate of a 4.8 per cent rise to $70.77 billion in revenue, according to data compiled by LSEG.
However, some analysts have said the impact to the rest of the software industry might be limited as Big Blue had attributed much of the weakness to its mainframe business, which processes millions of daily transactions across industries such as banking and airlines.
Revenue from IBM’s Z mainframe slumped 42 per cent in the second quarter, dragging infrastructure revenue down 7 per cent to $3.84 billion.
“That mainframe stack of hardware and transaction processing software impacted IBM’s growth by over five points in the quarter,” IBM finance chief James Kavanaugh told Reuters. “We were only expecting about a point or two of an impact.”
He added that IBM sees “no evidence of clients moving off a mainframe”, adding that it expects “significant outperformance in the program to continue through the second half.”
Software revenue in the second quarter rose 5 per cent to $7.76 billion but missed an average estimate of $7.88 billion.
The company’s second-quarter revenue ticked up 1 per cent to $17.16 billion, missing estimates of $17.58 billion. IBM reported a net profit of $2.17 billion, a dip from a year earlier, while adjusted profit of $2.93 per share missed an average estimate of $2.97.
