Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
At midweek, professional bettors are involved in three noteworthy games on the college football Week 3 oddsboard.
Among them is arguably the biggest matchup on the schedule: No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 15 Tennessee.
“Georgia has won eight straight against Tennessee, all by double digits. But we saw some sharp action early on Tennessee,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said.
Bookmakers and sharp bettors offer their insights on that matchup and more, diving into college football Week 3 betting nuggets.
Marquee Matchup
Georgia is 2-0 straight up (SU), but 0-2 against the spread (ATS), having tuned up the past two weeks at home against lesser lights Marshall, then FCS foe Austin Peay.
The Bulldogs were massive favorites in both games and won in blowout fashion, but failed to cover either spread.
Tennessee is 2-0 SU and ATS, including a 45-26 win at Syracuse as a 14-point favorite in Week 1.
Still, Caesars Sports opened Georgia as a 6-point road favorite vs. Tennessee. The sharp crowd jumped on that number, taking the Vols at multiple numbers, starting at +6.
“We’re down to Georgia -3.5,” Feazel said Wednesday afternoon. “But we’re seeing two-way action, a little bit more money on Georgia. I wouldn’t be surprised if that continues.”
Kickoff is at 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday.
Are the Oregon Ducks a national championship-caliber team?
College Football Rocks On FOX
Yes, it’s a huge point spread. Oregon opened as a 27.5-point favorite and is -28.5 vs. Northwestern as of Wednesday night, for Saturday’s noon ET kickoff.
“Sharp action on the Northwestern side at +28,” Feazel said, while noting that the sharp play didn’t keep this line from going up, such is the public support for the Ducks. “The public is believing that Oregon is gonna rout Northwestern. It’s one-way traffic on Oregon and the Over.
“We’re gonna need Northwestern to hang in there.”
On Campus Sharp Side
College football betting expert Paul Stone is getting involved with a showdown in South Bend: No. 16 Texas A&M vs. No. 8 Notre Dame.
The Aggies are 2-0 SU, but 0-2 ATS. Notre Dame is 0-1 SU and ATS, with a Week 2 bye after losing at Miami 27-24 in Week 1.
Stone expects Notre Dame to use its potent ground attack to keep A&M quarterback Marcel Reed & Co. off the field in this 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday kickoff.
Last season, the duo of Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price combined to gain almost 1,900 yards rushing.
And A&M could be prone to the running game. In its Week 1 meeting with Texas-San Antonio, the Aggies gave up 203 rushing yards, 6.2 yards per carry.
With that in mind, Stone is on the Irish -6.5.
“I expect Notre Dame to give A&M a heavy dose of Love and Price,” Stone said. “During the second half of last season, the Aggies allowed 286 yards rushing to South Carolina and 240 to Texas. I look for the Irish to win by double digits.”
Speaking of A&M-Notre Dame …
Defensive Duel
Caesars Sports opened Notre Dame -7, with Feazel noting the Fighting Irish have already faced stiff competition, on the road no less. The Aggies were at home in a 42-24 win over UTSA and a 44-22 win over Utah State.
“A&M has been beating up on Little Sisters of the Poor teams,” Feazel said, before moving on to Saturday’s matchup. “We’ve seen two-way action thus far. We’re now at Notre Dame -6.5, with a little sharper money on the ‘dog.
“We expect a lot of action on this one, and a very good defensive matchup.”
I Like Big Bets And I Cannot Lie
As of Wednesday night, two of the bigger bets on college football Week 3 odds are on heavy favorites on the moneyline. Meaning those bettors, both at Caesars Sports, just need those big favorites to win, not even cover the spread.
That makes the payout quite small when compared with the wager size:
- $21,000 Oregon moneyline -7000. As long as Oregon beats Northwestern, the bettor will win … $300. Total payout $21,300.
- $13,000 Alabama moneyline -1400 vs. Wisconsin. If Alabama, a 20.5-point home favorite, just wins, then the customer nets $928.57 profit (total payout $13,928.57).
By the weekend, there will no doubt be some six-figure plays. For now, here are two more low-five-figure wagers taken at Caesars:
- $11,500 Oregon -28 (-115) vs. Northwestern. If the Ducks win by more than 28, then the bettor profits $10,000 (total payout $21,500).
- $11,662.85 — yeah, that’s kind of an odd amount — Utah -23.5 vs. Wyoming. If the Utes cover on the road, the bettor nets $10,602.60 in profit (total payout $22,265.44).
It’s always worth noting that these major wagers come from bettors who have the bankroll to absorb a loss. So keep it reasonable as you ponder which bets to make this weekend.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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