We’re entering the home stretch of the regular season, and there are a handful of matchups this weekend that will help paint a clear picture for the College Football Playoff.
The most notable game this weekend is in Athens, Georgia, where the fifth-ranked Bulldogs host 10th-ranked Texas in the only top-10 game of the weekend. There are a couple of other ranked games happening around the league, though, including one in the Big Ten that features one team whose CFP hopes might be on the line.
As for the “Big Noon Saturday” crew, we’ll be at Wrigley Field for the tilt between No. 18 Michigan and Northwestern.
Let’s preview that game and dish out picks for the rest of Saturday’s marquee games.
Getting to go to Wrigley for this matchup is going to be very cool. It’s also setting up to be an interesting matchup for Michigan, which is taking on a Northwestern team that has played really well as of late. This is a very tough, fundamentally sound and prototypical Northwestern team.
For Michigan, I still think it largely controls its CFP destiny, especially with “The Game” looming. The Wolverines bring in one of the nation’s top rushing attacks as well — and it doesn’t matter who is in the backfield. Whether it’s Jordan Marshall or Justice Haynes at running back, Michigan has been outstanding at running the ball against some decent defenses. Marshall has led the way for Michigan, which rushed for over 250 total yards over its past two games. Marshall is averaging over 140 yards per game over the past three games, filling in nicely for an injured Haynes.
Can Michigan’s run game stay dominant vs. Northwestern? 🤔
Bryce Underwood has also gotten better for Michigan at quarterback. I know it didn’t look great against Purdue, but Michigan really only had two mistakes, and it would’ve been a blowout victory otherwise. The Wolverines controlled the game on the ground while turning the ball over twice right before reaching the end zone.
Northwestern’s defense should make Underwood work. The Wildcats don’t give up chunk plays. Northwestern leans into the run game, so this could be a short game with fewer possessions and points. Wildcats RB Caleb Komolaf has rushed for 100 yards in back-to-back games. Michigan’s defense is dealing with a lot of injuries as well, particularly at linebacker.
If you recall, Georgia swept both matchups against Texas last year. Kirby Smart’s Georgia defense did a great job of unlocking Texas’ pass protection and getting to then-QB Quinn Ewers, getting 13.0 sacks over the two games.
You would think that a similar thing could happen in this matchup. Texas’ offensive line has been a bit of an issue this season, although it has been a bit better recently. Because of a recent change the Longhorns made in the interior, Arch Manning has been better at quarterback as well, but we still haven’t seen a complete game from them this season. If we’re being honest, don’t we know it’s going to take a complete game from any team to beat Georgia in Athens? It’s what it took from Alabama earlier this year, playing one of the best halves of football this season.
Which teams in the CFP top 25 control their own destiny? 🤔
If you boil this down to trust, which team do you trust more? That’s not a hard question to answer. I trust Georgia. It doesn’t mean it’s always pretty or dominant, but I trust that Georgia knows how to win, can do different things to win and knows what it’s doing situationally. I don’t trust this Texas team because we haven’t seen it play a full 60 minutes. Even in the win against Oklahoma, there were moments when it wasn’t clicking.
This really comes down to faith. Do I have faith that Texas will put something together that I’ve yet to see this season? I haven’t seen evidence that Texas can go into Athens and beat Georgia. I don’t think it’s suddenly going to do that, with Texas already having two losses and two overtime wins on the road this season.
Pick: Georgia 31, Texas 24 (Georgia -5.5)
No. 11 Oklahoma at No. 4 Alabama (3:30 p.m. ET)
I feel differently about this game than I do Texas-Georgia. When I look at Oklahoma, this is a bad matchup for Alabama. Can the Crimson Tide overcome it? Certainly. Will it be difficult? Yes.
If you were building a team to beat Alabama, you would have a defense that can get after the quarterback. Oklahoma has that, ranking third in the nation in sacks and first in the SEC in yards per pass attempt allowed. Florida State showed that if you can pressure quarterback Ty Simpson, there’s a path to beating Alabama.
Alabama is more matchup-specific than some of the other top teams because it’s only elite in one area. The Crimson Tide don’t have a lot of balance. That’s why I think we’ll know everything we’ll need to know about this game early on. Alabama has typically been good to open games before trailing late, which we saw in its wins over Georgia and LSU.
Will Alabama and Georgia solidify CFP spots this weekend with wins over SEC opponents? 🤔
Defensively, Alabama has struggled with elusive, running quarterbacks. A few of the QBs they’ve faced this year (Diego Pavia, LaNorris Sellers, Beau Pribula) rushed for 65 yards against them if you take out sacks. So, I think Oklahoma having John Mateer at quarterback gives it a bit of an edge there.
When I boiled this down, I really wanted to take the Sooners, but I just can’t. I just don’t know how many points Oklahoma’s offense can put up to get a win.
Pick: Alabama 24, Oklahoma 21 (Oklahoma +5.5)
This matchup for Notre Dame will be a lot more difficult than people realize.
We know ND has a great running game with Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, but Pitt has the No. 1 rush defense in the country, at least in terms of yards per carry allowed. This is a team built to stop that dynamic rushing attack.
The question then becomes how will Fighting Irish quarterback CJ Carr react if Pitt can stop the run? Carr’s clearly talented, but like most young signal-callers, there has been way too much up-and-down. He didn’t play well against USC, but Notre Dame overcame that because it ran the ball so well.
Now, Pitt head coach Pat Narduzzi made a head-scratching comment earlier this week when he said, “I don’t care if we get beat by 100. We just have to win our ACC games.” Why would you put that in your players’ heads? Be a competitor, play your butt off! Some of these coaches are throwing excuses at their teams.
If Miami wins out, would they make the CFP over ND? 🤔 Joel Klatt Show
Pitt’s season changed after it went to freshman Mason Heintschel at quarterback. He has thrown for almost 300 yards per game in five starts, but Notre Dame has the second-best scoring defense over its past six games.
I believe Pitt lines up well against Notre Dame, but I don’t think it lines up well enough to upset the Fighting Irish.
Pick: Notre Dame 20, Pitt 16 (Pitt +12.5)
No. 21 Iowa at No. 17 USC (3:30 p.m. ET)
This is another fun strength-against-strength matchup. Iowa is top five in defense, while USC is top five in offense. That said, I don’t love this matchup for USC. Will Iowa make it an Iowa type of game? Likely. Think about every time we’ve seen USC go up against a run game that’s going to just try and eat it alive with physicality, straight-ahead runs. There is a trend of teams that want to play physical and can get away with it against USC.
I know USC has explosive players, but Iowa doesn’t give up explosive plays. Iowa plays strong zone defense and maintains its levels. The Hawkeyes are good at getting their hands on passes and creating short fields. That’s going to be frustrating for the Trojans, who’ll want to be explosive.
I just like the matchup too much for Iowa, so I like the Hawkeyes to roll into Los Angeles and get the upset win.
Pick: Iowa 19, USC 16 (Iowa +6.5)
Joel Klatt is FOX Sports’ lead college football game analyst and the host of the podcast “The Joel Klatt Show.” Follow him @joelklatt and subscribe to “The Joel Klatt Show” on YouTube.
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