There’s nothing like an undefeated weekend to get your mojo back. Such was the case for us in Week 5.
Let’s keep up that momentum with our college football Week 6 wagers.
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Last Week: 3-0
Season: 16-10
Until proven otherwise, I have to play against Nebraska here. Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers have certainly earned everyone’s trust over the last two seasons and this might be a spot where the defense just takes over. Get an early stop, score and belief in that stadium might begin to fade. This is a big step-up for Nebraska QB Anthony Colandrea, and he’ll need to have a career-best game for the Huskers to pull off the upset.
Fallica’s Pick: Indiana -7.5
I think Oklahoma State might be pretty good, but laying double digits off the idle week and ahead of the trip to Houston feels like a tricky spot, especially against a UCF defense that’s done a good job this season. Admittedly, the Knights will need to find more offense on the ground, as Duke Watson hasn’t done much outside the Bethune-Cookman and Georgia State games. If the defense can continue to put itself in position to create turnovers, this one could be quite interesting,
Fallica’s Pick: UCF +10.5
The card is slim this week, as I have found the depths of Rice at ECU. Not sure ECU should be a double-digit favorite here considering the Pirates snuck by a mediocre ODU team for its only FBS win. Rice has been a plucky dog, giving Western Michigan and UTSA games behind the rushing of Miami transfer QB Jacurri Brown, who ironically will face another Miami transfer QB, Emory Williams, here. Feels like too many points.
Fallica’s Pick: Rice +10
‘Dogs To Play On The Moneyline
Last Week: 2-2, +1.05
Season: 4-6, +0.19
UCF +325
Iowa +125
Akron +275
Rice +290
Tulsa +112
UMass +115
Bear Bytes
In the last 21 regular-season games between top-10 teams, it has essentially been, “Pick the winner, and you’ll also cover the spread.” In that span, nine underdogs have won outright, and 11 favorites have won and covered. Also in that stretch, the only favorite which didn’t cover was Texas in its 24-23 win over Ohio State.
Double-digit favorites in FBS vs. FBS games this season are 128-9.
No. 7 INDIANA @ NEBRASKA
Indiana has been a single-digit favorite 10 previous times under Curt Cignetti. IU has won all 10 games, winning eight by at least 14 points. This is the first time since 2022 a Big Ten game featuring two teams 5-0 or better did not include Ohio State.
Meanwhile, it’s more than time for Matt Rhule to end these elongated losing streaks:
- 20 straight losses vs. ranked opponents
- 0-20 vs. ranked teams as a P4 head coach
- 0-11 vs. top-10 teams (0-9 at Baylor and Nebraska)
- His last win vs. a ranked opponent came in the 2016 AAC Championship Game vs. Navy
Nebraska is also streaking in the wrong direction:
- 30 straight losses to ranked teams (last win was against Oregon in 2016)
- 14 straight losses vs. top-10 teams (3-32 dating back to the 2001 national title game loss to Miami) — its last win was in 2015 against Michigan State
No. 21 UCLA @ No. 13 OREGON
UCLA’s defense has forced 11 turnovers, which is second in the country. The Bruins’ +8 TO margin leads the country and its average starting field position difference of +14.9 is the best among P4 teams.
SOUTH CAROLINA @ No. 16 FLORIDA
South Carolina has lost nine straight and 11 of 12 vs. P4 teams. Since upsetting Tennessee and Clemson in consecutive weeks as a double-digit dog in 2022, South Carolina has lost 10 straight as a double-digit ‘dog. However, four of those games were decided by single digits.
Can Aaron Philo and the Gators get back on track after last week’s loss? (Getty Images)
No. 19 USC @ PENN STATE
As a Power 4 head coach, Matt Campbell is 8-20 in toss-up games — games where the spread was within +3/-3. USC has won 14 straight regular-season games against unranked teams. Since losing in the 2024 CFP semifinal, Penn State is 3-8 in regular-season games vs. Power 4 opponents. Since 2023, USC is 3-13 ATS on the road (7-9 SU)
MARYLAND @ No. 5 OHIO STATE
Maryland is 2-18 in its last 20 Big Ten games and Malik Washington has had three interceptions returned for touchdowns in the last two games.
No. 20 IOWA @ WASHINGTON
Since 2022, Iowa has been involved in 20 games with a spread of +4/-4. The Hawkeyes have won 16 of them.
No. 15 TENNESSEE @ ARKANSAS
Arkansas has lost 13 straight SEC games and each of the last four have been by at least 14 points.
STANFORD @ No. 3 NOTRE DAME
Stanford is a 37.5-point underdog to Notre Dame. Saturday will be almost 19 years to the day — Oct. 6, 2007 — that Tavita Pritchard led an upset of No. 2 USC as a 40.5-point underdog.
TEXAS A&M @ No. 14 MISSOURI
Since the start of the 2024 season, only once has Missouri won consecutive SEC games in the same season. In his last three games against ranked opponents, Marcel Reed has thrown zero TDs and five INTs while being sacked 13 times. A&M has lost all three games, being outscored 72-26.
OKLAHOMA vs. No. 1 TEXAS
The Red River Rivalry hasn’t been one that has seen many upsets lately. Favorites have won seven of the last eight and 19 of 24 dating back to 2003. Texas’ last three wins in the series have come by a combined 106-9 margin, including a shutout win in 2022.
No. 2 GEORGIA @ No. 6 ALABAMA
This is the first meeting of two SEC teams 5-0 or better since 2023, when 5-0 Georgia beat 5-0 Kentucky.
FLORIDA STATE @ LOUISVILLE
Louisville is 1-5 in its last six ACC games. Four of those losses are by three points or fewer.
