Chris ‘The Bear’ Fallica’s College Football Week 5 Expert Picks, Best Bets

Last week was not as kind to us as it could’ve been from a betting perspective, but we live to see another day.

And might I add, we’re still doing pretty solid overall for the season.

Let’s go ahead and get into some college football Week 5 wagers!

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Last Week: 1-4
Season: 13-10

I can’t see Iowa dragging Ohio State into the deep end here. Iowa’s offense hasn’t done much against either Iowa State or Michigan and even Bryce Underwood threw for close to 300 last week. 

Jeremiah Smith has been a key piece to Ohio State’s offense this season. (Getty Images)

What will Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith do? Maybe Iowa will somehow get a chain of events like it did last week in Ann Arbor, but more often than not, when Iowa is a double-digit ‘dog, it ends with a sound defeat. 

Purdue has allowed 38, 52 and 49 against the three Power 4 teams it’s played and lost by 39 last week to Notre Dame. I’m going to hold my nose here and hope the Boilers have a little pride after last week’s embarrassment. I also don’t think Illinois is very good, especially on defense. Purdue put up 36 and 38 in losses to Wake Forest and UCLA — both of whom I think are better than Illinois. Do that here and we should be good to get the cover. 

The Clemson offense has been a tough watch for a good part of the season. The Tigers are 3-1 but it really has not been an impressive 3-1, as they could have easily lost to North Carolina and Cal. There are still doubts nationally about Miami. The Canes have blown everyone out and have two conference road wins against Stanford and Wake Forest, but the competition hasn’t been great. 

Are Mario Cristobal and the Hurricanes as good as their ranking says they are? (Getty Images)

I was surprised at how LSU and North Carolina ran the ball on Clemson. Enter a new offensive line on the road and Mark Fletcher. This could be 2025 CFP Miami where they just lean on the running game, which results in a few big plays through the air. Feels like a 34-13 type win for the Canes. 

‘Dogs To Play On The Moneyline

Last Week: 0-0
Season: 2-4, -0.86

Mississippi State +185
Auburn +235
Missouri +180
Northwestern +125

BEAR BYTES 

Five of the eleven games between ranked teams this season have been decided by three points or fewer. 

Favorites of 14+ points this season are 192-5 straight up (SU).

Since losing to Northern Illinois as a 28.5-point favorite, Notre Dame has won its last 15 games in which it was a 20-point favorite. Those 15 wins have come by an average of 33 PPG, with the Irish allowing 10.1 PPG. Only one of the wins came by fewer than 17 points. 

This is the first time since 2007 that Alabama is favored by 7 points or fewer over Mississippi State. That was also the last time the Bulldogs beat the Tide. 

Under Ryan Day, Ohio State is 26-0 away from home as a double-digit favorite. Dating back to 2023, in the last nine such instances, the Buckeyes have allowed 8.4 PPG and never more than 16 points. Since upsetting Ohio State as a 20.5-point underdog in 2017, Iowa has lost its last seven games as a double-digit underdog by an average of 29.3 PPG. The Hawkeyes haven’t scored more than 14 points nor have they covered any of the seven.

Missouri has lost nine straight regular season games vs. ranked opponents, failing to cover any of the last five. Eli Drinkwitz is 0-10 in the regular season against top-10 opponents, with just two of the games decided by fewer than seven points. 

This is the first time Clemson has been greater than a four-point underdog at home. That game came in 2013 when the Tigers lost 51-14 to eventual national champion Florida State. This is just the sixth time Clemson has been a double-digit dog under Dabo Swinney. Clemson hasn’t pulled the upset in any of the previous five and has lost the three such games since 2024 by 31, 14 and 41 points. 

Colorado is 2-12 in its last 14 games vs. Power 4 opposition. The Buffs have scored more than 17 points only once in the last eight such games.

At 2-2, South Carolina is favored over ranked Kentucky, but we’ve seen a rather strong trend flip recently. From 2016-2022, unranked teams that did not have a winning record and were favored over a ranked team in the regular season won 20 of 26 games. Since, such teams have lost four straight games. Maybe Vegas doesn’t always know? 

Auburn is 1-21 in its last 22 games vs. ranked opponents and 4-15 in its last 19 SEC games. 

At Iowa State, Matt Campbell went 8-19 in toss-up games — games where the spread was within +3/-3.

This is the 13th time since 2020 under Mike Norvell the Seminoles have been a home underdog. From 1978 to 2019, FSU was a home underdog just 15 times. 

USC has won 14 straight regular season games against unranked teams, averaging 38.5 PPG in the process. 

Last year the three CIC Trophy games were decided by a combined seven points. 

Nebraska is looking to start 5-0 for the first time since 2016.