China has not purchased any US soybean cargoes from this autumn’s harvest. The window for US soybean purchases is rapidly closing as buyers secure shipments through November, largely from Brazil and Argentina, helped by Argentina’s brief tax holiday.
Without a breakthrough in trade talks, US farmers could face billions in losses as Chinese crushers continue sourcing from South America. Beijing, however, may also face a potential supply crunch early next year before Brazil’s new crops hit the market.
“A soybean supply gap may emerge in China between February and April next year if there’s no trade deal in place. Brazil has already shipped a huge volume, and no one knows how much old-crop stock remains,” said Johnny Xiang, founder of Beijing-based AgRadar Consulting.
Trade negotiations between Beijing and Washington appear to be regaining momentum after weeks of fresh tariff threats and export controls. US President Donald Trump said on Sunday he believed a soybean deal would be reached.
For the January-September period, China imported 63.7 million tons from Brazil, up 2.4 per cent year-on-year, and 2.9 million tons from Argentina, up 31.8 per cent year-on-year.
Even as Chinese buyers are shunning this year’s US harvest, purchases earlier in 2025 mean that year-to-date imports of American beans have totalled 16.8 million tons, up 15.5 per cent, data showed.
