A cargo ship is loading and unloading foreign trade containers at Qingdao Port in Qingdao Port, Shandong Province, China on June 9, 2025.
Cfoto | Future Publishing | Getty Images
China’s exports growth missed expectations in August as businesses’ front-loading activity aimed at avoiding higher U.S. tariffs lost momentum, while imports also grew less than expected as domestic demand stays weak.
Exports climbed 4.4% in August in U.S. dollar terms from a year earlier, customs data showed Monday, marking the lowest level since February while missing Reuters-polled economists’ estimates for a 5.0% rise.
That growth slowed from the prior two months, in part reflecting the statistical effect of a high base last year when China’s exports grew at their fastest pace in nearly one-and-a-half years.
Imports rose 1.3% last month from a year ago, missing Reuters estimates for a 3% growth. Imports rose for a third straight month after returning to growth in June, albeit still muted due to the persistent real estate slump, rising job insecurity, among other things.
China has increasingly relied on alternative markets, particularly Southeast Asia and European Union nations, Africa and Latin America, as U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policy has pressured U.S.-bound shipments.
Nonetheless, no one country has come close to the U.S. which remains China’s largest trading partner on a single-country basis, absorbing $283 billion of Chinese goods this year as of August. Exports to the EU stood at $541 billion over the same period.
Beijing and Washington on Aug. 11 agreed to extend their tariff truce by another 90 days, locking in place U.S. tariffs of around 55% on Chinese imports and 30% Chinese duties on U.S. goods, according to Peterson Institute for International Economist.
But bilateral talks appear to be struggling to reach a breakthrough, with a late-August visit to Washington by top Chinese trade negotiator Li Chenggang yielding little progress.
Chinese exporters have also relied on routing shipments to third countries to sidestep U.S. tariffs — a tactic that is facing the test of tightening U.S. scrutiny over the so-called “transshipments,” which analysts have warned could weigh on Chinese exports in the coming months.
The U.S. in July announced a 40% tariff on any shipments that Washington determines to be “transshipped.”
An exports-oriented private survey RatingDog purchasing managers’ index showed China’s manufacturing activity sharply beat expectations in August, boosted by a recovery in new export orders, suggesting resilient external demand.
China is set to release two closely monitored inflation gauges later this week, including the consumer price index and producer price index.
Goldman Sachs expects the PPI inflation to remain “deeply negative,” falling 2.9% year on year, with the month-on-month reading to turn positive on the back of Beijing’s “anti-involution” policies aimed at reducing excessive price-cutting and the recent increases in upstream raw material prices.
The Wall Street bank forecasts headline CPI inflation to be “moderately negative,” falling 0.2% last month from a year ago.
