Joshua Baez had a day for the ages in the Cardinals’ Saturday showdown against the Cubs.
In his MLB debut, Baez launched three home runs in his first three at-bats, the first player to ever do so. And one bettor came along for the ride — or at least most of it — to turn a $10 bill into a nice little four-figure win.
It was nowhere near the biggest haul of the past week, but it was arguably the most interesting.
More on that winning ticket, along with a seven-figure soccer payday and two six-figure UFC bangers, as we recap the week that was in sports betting.
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Home Run Derby
On Saturday in Chicago, there were modest expectations of Baez hitting just one home run. At multiple sportsbooks, the rookie outfielder was in the +500 range to go yard against the Cubs.
Baez took care of that in short order with a 449-foot, two-run bomb in the first inning, putting St. Louis up 3-0.
Still, oddsmakers didn’t think that was the precursor to a historic day. After the first homer, Fanatics Sportsbook posted a live in-game market on Baez hitting three or more homers.
The odds were a hefty +15000 (150/1). And one customer with a $10 bill burning a hole in his pocket decided to get on board.
Then Baez went deep and belted a solo shot in the fourth inning, giving the Cards a 4-3 lead. The youngster followed with another two-run blast in the sixth inning, as St. Louis took a 6-3 lead on the way to an 8-4 victory.
So that modest 10 bucks turned into $1,510, in about 90 minutes. That’s the kind of ROI we can all appreciate.
Soccer Show-Stopper
With the English Premier League’s 2026-27 season starting at the end of this week, the annual Community Shield contest provided a high-profile matchup to get people in the mood: Arsenal vs. Manchester City.
The match pits the previous season’s Premier League champions against the previous winner of the FA Cup, England’s massive national tournament. Arsenal took the EPL title last season, while Manchester City won the FA Cup.
At Polymarket, a whale of a customer put $1,873,916.76 on three or more goals scored in Sunday’s match. It was essentially a coin flip, priced at 54%, which equates to odds of -117.
The trader got no help from Man City, but Arsenal delivered all that was necessary in a 3-0 victory. So the customer profited $1,592,448.24 (total payout $3,466,365).
Similarly, the Super Cup was held on Wednesday, with reigning Champions League winner Paris Saint-Germain facing Europa League winner Aston Villa.
A Polymarket customer put $319,501.82 on PSG to win the match, which it did 2-1. At a price of 58% (-138), the trader cleared $234,900.18 profit (total payout $554,402).
Big Money On Makhachev
Saturday night’s UFC 330 card in Philadelphia also drew big action on prediction markets. Specifically on welterweight champion Islam Makhachev in the main event vs. Ian Machado Garry.
There were two massive plays on the heavy favorite at Polymarket:
The match went all five rounds, but Makhachev earned a unanimous decision to retain his title. And both customers cashed in.
The bigger trade netted $86,801.41, while the smaller trade profited $62,275.01.
On the flip side, at Kalshi, a trader put $43,100 on Garry to pull the upset. That’s a five-figure loser.
The Anti-Scottie Bet
Only one golfer can win a PGA Tour event. So it’s not necessarily a bad idea to go against World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler winning on any given weekend.
Just not this past weekend.
At Prophet X, a customer put $108,000 on Scheffler to not win the FedEx St. Jude Championship. No was a heavy favorite at -540, in part due to the fact that Scheffler hasn’t won since January.
Scheffler then went out and shot four rounds in the 60s, including a sizzling 9-under 61 in Friday’s second round. He finished with a 66 Sunday for a 17-under 263 total, eight shots clear of second-place Si Woo Kim.
That’s six figures lit on fire. Which is a reminder that these high-roller/high-net-worth bettors and traders can afford to absorb such losses.
You and me, not so much.
So keep your wagers and your expectations reasonable, especially as football season approaches. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
