SYDNEY, July 24 : Asian shares fell on Friday as oil prices stormed back above $100 a barrel amid an intensifying conflict in the Gulf, rattling bond markets and reviving fears of a fresh inflation shock.
Brent crude held at $100.85 a barrel, after surging 7 per cent overnight to a two-month high of $102 as attacks by Iran-aligned Houthis on Saudi tankers in the Red Sea choked off a second crucial Middle East artery for global oil supplies, alongside Iran’s near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Two weeks since the effective collapse of an interim truce meant to end the war, the U.S. military launched air strikes on Iran into Friday morning while Tehran fired at neighbouring Arab countries that host U.S. bases. With the conflict showing little signs of abating, Brent has soared nearly 40 per cent this month alone.
“Two of the world’s busiest shipping corridors are under threat in the same month, and markets are only just beginning to work out what that means,” said Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, a financial advisory firm.
“With that ceasefire now collapsed and oil back above $100, the drop which gave the Fed room to relax may already be reversing … This looks less like a short-lived spike and more like a genuine reopening of the inflation question.”
News that the U.S. administration will impose higher tariffs on goods from 60 trading partners also did not help the inflation picture, with 30-year Treasury yields nearing their highest levels since 2007 and benchmark European borrowing costs climbing to highs last seen in 2011.
Markets bet central banks will have to turn more hawkish, with a one-in-three chance of a rate hike from the Federal Reserve as soon as next week — a sea change from merely a week ago — while a move in September is more than fully priced in.
The European Central Bank left rates unchanged overnight but a September rate hike is about 70 per cent priced in.
In Asia, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 1 per cent and Japan’s Nikkei slid 2.9 per cent. South Korea’s KOSPI dropped 3.7 per cent.
Nasdaq futures were last up 0.1 per cent as bumper results from Intel offered only fleeting support in the face of broader worries about oil and rates.
Wall Street fell overnight after Alphabet and Tesla, the first two of the so-called “Magnificent Seven” megacap tech companies to report this season, spooked investors as both burned through cash in their most recent quarter for their big spending on AI infrastructure.
DOLLAR CATCHING YIELD SUPPORT
In bond markets, the benchmark 10-year U.S. yield held at 4.7013 per cent on Friday, after hitting an over 18-month high of 4.7030 per cent overnight. 30-year bond yields were steady at 5.17 per cent, just below a 19-year peak of 5.201 per cent.
The higher Treasury yields helped the U.S. dollar up generally, with the dollar index holding at 101.46 after a 0.3 per cent rise overnight to the highest level this month.
The beleaguered yen was pinned near 40-year lows at 163.89 per dollar, drawing a warning from the U.S. Treasury that excess volatility in the currency was undesirable.
Japan’s finance minister has repeatedly issued verbal warnings about a possible intervention in the currency market, after carrying out yen-buying operations in April and May, with the yen weakening beyond the 160 level.
“Against the backdrop of surging energy prices, the hawkish Fed repricing, and the yen’s loss of safe-haven status, any comments from Japanese officials today about being ready to intervene or faster BoJ rate hike will likely be ignored,” said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG.
“At this point, trying to support the yen here would be akin to standing in the way of a bullet train.”
Precious metals took a hit, with gold off 0.1 per cent at $4,043 an ounce after falling 2 per cent overnight. Silver held at $57.45 an ounce after a decline of 3.4 per cent overnight.
