In an alternate timeline, Paramount would be reporting quarterly earnings this week as Warner Bros. Discovery, one of its subsidiaries, would no longer be releasing its own separate financials.
As it stands now, however, both companies are due to report – Paramount on Tuesday afternoon and WBD before the market opens Thursday. An antitrust challenge of the companies’ planned $110 billion merger by the attorneys general of 12 states along with the Writers Guild of America has put the deal on hold, with a judge soon to set a trial date.
On their second-quarter earnings conference calls with Wall Street analysts, both companies are likely to pre-empt any merger-related questions, as they did in May when reporting first-quarter results. They also may choose to reiterate their prior statements about the transaction being pro-competitive, or possibly even nod to the unfolding legal process.
Even if Wall Street manages to put the merger to one side, the spotlight on the two separate businesses may not be especially flattering for either of them this quarter. The companies’ stock prices reflect the deal’s slowdown in momentum. After a huge runup during the months when it was pursued by Paramount, Comcast and Netflix, WBD stock has slipped 7% from the time of the Paramount deal in late-February. Paramount shares, meanwhile, have plunged 40% (to near $8) in that period as the once-breezy regulatory process has become a grind.
Analysts expect Paramount’s revenue to come in flat at around $6.9 billion, according to consensus estimates, with earnings per share dropping to 17 cents from 46 cents a year ago. WBD is projected to post revenue of $9.2 billion, down from $9.8 billion in the NBA-free April-to-June quarter, with a loss of 10 cents a share reversing year-earlier earnings of 63 cents a share.
On the bright side for both companies, Paramount+ and HBO Max are both showing growth, but the question for both will be about their remaining upside. Paramount+ added 700,000 new subscribers, slightly below internal forecasts despite the launch of UFC programming, to reach 79.6 million. HBO Max, aided in large part by a rollout to key international markets, topped 140 million subscribers in the first quarter and will end 2026 at 150 million or higher, the company projects.
More of a concern for both companies is ongoing declines in their linear TV operations, though the combined company would rely on it to pay down debt after the merger. (Alleged over-concentration of cable networks, interestingly, has surfaced as one of the core arguments made in the AGs’ lawsuit.)
Hollywood appears to be divided between those adamant that the merger will destroy a legacy studio and harm workers and others (including inside the companies) fearing a potentially worse fate if the deal is blocked. WBD initially had recourse in its prior plan to split into two companies as Comcast is in the midst of doing for a second time. In theory, that split could unlock greater value through more focused M&A deals centered on networks and Warner Bros/HBO, but it also is a process that takes time. For Comcast, its Versant split took about a year to complete, which is the timeline it has given for the NBCUniversal spin-off from the company’s cable and broadband holdings.
Whatever storm clouds may be gathering overhead, expect mostly blue skies in the remarks of executives. Paramount CEO David Ellison, speaking on the company’s first-quarter call last May, sounded optimistic notes that the company has often reiterated throughout the saga.
“We remain guided by our strong conviction that the combination of these two iconic companies and their extraordinary teams will create a leading global media and entertainment company powered by storytelling and accelerated by technology that strengthens competition, better serves the creative community and delivers even more compelling stories to audiences worldwide,” he said.
In an uncanny bit of timing, this week (Friday, to be exact) is also the one-year anniversary of Paramount’s merger with Skydance. Just weeks after that long-sought deal was consummated and executives held court at bicoastal press conferences to talk about synergies and future plans, reports emerged that Ellison had his eyes on a much bigger prize.
