Way back on March 25, when the MLB regular season began, you could’ve made one or both of the following bets on World Series futures odds at DraftKings Sportsbook: Rays +8000 to win the World Series or Brewers +3500 to win the World Series.
Imagine having a hundred bucks on either right now. Or better still, both, locking in a minimum $3,400 profit and a max profit of $7,900.
But those tickets are few and far between, as very few bettors envisioned a Tampa Bay vs. Milwaukee Fall Classic.
“There are not a ton of customers holding tickets from Opening Day on either of these clubs,” DraftKings director of sportsbook operations Johnny Avello said. “But after two straight seasons in which the favorite won it all, this matchup gives long-shot backers something to root for.”
Avello helps break down World Series futures betting and how customers are wagering this week, now that the matchup is set, with Game 1 at 8 p.m. ET Friday on FOX.
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Unexpected Matchup
Much of this season, the usual suspects — the Dodgers and Yankees — took the lion’s share of action in World Series odds, especially Los Angeles, the two-time defending champion.
But the Brewers — who had the majors’ best regular-season record at 103-59 — stunningly swept the Dodgers in the best-of-seven NLCS.
The Rays, meanwhile, had the AL’s best record at 98-64 and swept the Yanks 3-0 in the ALDS. Then Tampa Bay took the ALCS over Cleveland in six games.
“You can’t take anything away from these two teams,” Avello said. “The best teams got to the World Series, and both were remarkable at home and good on the road.”
Still, neither oddsmakers nor bettors saw Tampa getting this far, demonstrated by those Opening Day 80/1 odds.
“The Rays weren’t expected to do this well,” Avello said. “They didn’t take the action of the bigger-market teams. Bettors had many chances to bet the Rays at a longer price.”
Bettors didn’t take advantage of it.
The Brewers weren’t quite as long a shot, and as such got a little more action from March to August. But Milwaukee didn’t really attract attention until later in the season.
“It’s not like the Brewers weren’t played. But it was a steady flow of action the last three weeks of the regular season,” Avello said. “And once the playoffs started, customers continued to play the Brewers.”
If you’d just taken a shot on either team when the playoffs began, then you still could’ve gotten +800 on the Rays and +550 on the Brew Crew.
Where Are They Now
On Thursday afternoon, just more than 24 hours before first pitch, the Brewers are the -165 favorite in DraftKings’ World Series odds. The Rays, on the road for Games 1 and 2, are the +145 underdog.
And no surprise, the favorite is seeing the bulk of activity to win the best-of-seven series.
“Bettors like Milwaukee. They’re laying the price with the Brewers,” Avello said. “And Game 1 is kind of like a mirror of that — they’re betting the Brewers.”
In fact, Avello pointed out that odds to win the series are nearly identical to Game 1 odds. The Brewers are -166 and the Rays +137 in Friday’s opener.
“Since the Brewers have their No. 1 guy going, those prices are pretty equivalent,” Avello said.
That would be 24-year-old ace Jacob Misiorowski, who went 16-5 with a sparkling 1.80 ERA in the regular season. Misiorowski didn’t get credited with the win in either of his postseason starts so far, but Milwaukee won both games — 3-2 in the NLDS opener vs. the Padres, and 2-1 in NLCS Game 1 vs. the Dodgers.
MVP Money
Brewers left fielder Jackson Chourio is the +600 favorite in World Series MVP odds at DraftKings. That’s just ahead of Brewers catcher William Contreras, the +650 second choice.
Then comes Rays third baseman Junior Caminero at +750, followed by Misiorowski at +800.
But DraftKings customers are looking down the board a little further, hoping for a better payday.
“They’re betting Christian Yelich at 25/1, both tickets and money,” Avello said.
Yelich, the 2018 NL MVP, is the Brewers’ designated hitter in the World Series.
He’s certainly got an attractive price. A $100 bet on Yelich would profit $2,500, if he hoists the MVP trophy at the close of the World Series.
