It’s what we fans and bettors have been waiting for.
Goodbye, preseason. Hello, NFL Week 1.
After weeks of looking at NFL futures wagers, it’s time to get into the weeds of wagering on actual events that have meaning.
Here’s what I’m looking at for NFL Week 1.
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The Chicago Bears are an Over play until otherwise noted.
The Chicago offense is going to be fantastic this season. Caleb Williams, in Year 2 with Ben Johnson, should see an improvement in efficiency, which is scary for opposing defenses. Chicago was ninth last season in yards per play and points per game while everyone was playing together for the first time, and Colston Loveland, Luther Burton, Rome Odunze and D’Andre Swift should all have huge seasons.
On the flip side is the Bears’ defense, which projects to be awful.
Last season, that unit gave up almost six yards a play and allowed 24 points a game. It wasn’t closer to 30 points a game because the Bears led the league in turnovers. That is unlikely to happen again this season.
In short, the Bears’ offense is very good, while that defense could be even worse. This combination will lead to Chicago scoring a ton of points because it must, considering the defense will continue to allow points.
The Panthers’ offense had an up-and-down 2025 season. Some weeks it looked unstoppable and other weeks it couldn’t score. It has a rebuilt offensive line that should be better at making the offense more consistent. The Panthers welcome back Jonathan Brooks at running back and have the returning Offensive Rookie of the Year at wide receiver in Tetairoa McMillan.
I know Carolina is hopeful the offense will score more points, and against this Chicago defense, it might be easier to start the season fast.
Schwartz’s Pick: Over 47.5 combined points scored
Simply put, I think the Cowboys are more than three points better than the Giants and home field at MetLife Stadium is nonexistent.
Dallas did have some unfortunate injury news, with All-Pro left guard Tyler Smith being placed on injured reserve. Otherwise, the Cowboys’ offense should be humming — even against a tough Giants’ defensive line.
This is a year-to-year league, but it’s worth mentioning the Cowboys scored 37 points against mostly the same defense in Week 2 last season.
The Cowboys’ defensive improvement will be the key to success this season.
Here are the names on the Cowboys’ depth chart in Week 1 of 2026 that were not on the roster to start the 2025 season: defensive tackles Kenny Clark and Quinenn Williams; pass rushers Rashan Gary, Malachi Lawrence, LT Overton and Von Miller; linebacker Dee Winters and DeMarvion Overshown (on IR to start 2025); secondary pieces in Jalen Thompson, Cobie Durant and Caleb Downs.
The defense should be so much better, and on top of that, it is facing a New York offense that I don’t trust yet.
John Harbaugh is Big Blue’s new coach, and he gave the offense to Matt Nagy, who’s never been a good playcaller without the help of Andy Reid. Quarterback Jaxson Dart is highly talented but is not a complete player yet. The Giants’ offensive line should be improved, but outside of Malik Nabers, I don’t love their skill position players.
Overall, I just believe in the Cowboys this season, and it starts with them winning comfortably against the Giants.
Schwartz’s Pick: Cowboys -2.5
The Chargers are going to run the football this season.
They’ve paired new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel’s run game with Jim Harbaugh’s love of running the football. The Chargers’ offensive line is healthy at tackle after a brutal 2025 without either Rashawn Slater or Joe Alt. They are going to want to establish a new identity with their rushing attack this season.
Running the ball will also open up the play-action pass for Justin Herbert.
This is also a play on the opponent and the Chargers opening up a big lead on the Cardinals. They are 10-point favorites and should open up a wide margin by the middle of the third quarter. That gives more carries to the running back, as the Chargers will just want to wind down the clock.
