Any of the four NASCAR Cup Series drivers competing for the title this weekend would make a deserving champion.
With a field that has the driver with the most wins (Denny Hamlin), the driver who has led the most laps and won the regular-season title (William Byron), the driver with the most top-5s (Chase Briscoe) and the driver second in several statistical categories and the 2021 champion (Kyle Larson), few would argue that the driver who finishes the best among the four Sunday is not deserving.
With the race on the flat 1-mile Phoenix Raceway, neither the Joe Gibbs Racing drivers (Hamlin and Briscoe) nor the Hendrick Motorsports drivers (Byron and Larson) has a clear advantage as both organizations have won races there in the last six events and all four drivers have at least one Phoenix win on their resume.
Trying to pick a winner among the four is challenging. But the feeling here is to go with Kyle Larson.
And it’s not because Larson is the only former champion in the field. The fact he is on his longest winless drought (23 races) in his Hendrick tenure doesn’t sound promising, especially considering the other three drivers all won in the semifinal round.
But Larson was in the mix near the end of the spring race in a battle with Hamlin and race-winner Christopher Bell. He has run better throughout the playoffs even though he hasn’t won a playoff race. If any of these four drivers can overcome or not let a winless streak bother him, Larson is the one.
To be honest, if Hamlin had not had power steering problems at Kansas, throttle cable problem at Talladega, and starter and engine issues at Martinsville — all in the last five weeks — he would likely be the pick.
And maybe my memory is clouded by the past 20 years of JGR’s occasional quality control issues in the playoffs. But it is just hard to have confidence that nothing will break on Hamlin’s car.
How about Briscoe? He hasn’t been dominant except for one race this year (Darlington to open the playoffs). He will be in the mix but whether everything falls into place for him to outrun the other four on the sport’s biggest stage remains to be seen.
Byron might be the hardest to pinpoint how he will perform. He won the Daytona 500. He won the regular-season title. He has led the most laps. But he also has had some weekends where one would think he’d be a top-five car and he’s closer to a top-10 car.
So count this as a pick for Larson, mainly because there is a good chance he will have speed and when Larson and crew chief Cliff Daniels are on, they can be hard to beat.
As far as the other two series? Corey Heim (11 wins) in truck and Connor Zilisch (10 wins) in Xfinity are the picks. While both of the 2024 champions — Ty Majeski in truck and Justin Allgaier in Xfinity — are in their championship hunts, Heim and Zilisch have far and away performed the best all year. They are the obvious picks and the ones to beat.
Bob Pockrass covers NASCAR and INDYCAR for FOX Sports. He has spent decades covering motorsports, including over 30 Daytona 500s, with stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter @bobpockrass.
