A lot of times, in college football, wins depend solely on how your schedule is lined up.
In other words, some teams attempt to schedule wins, while others schedule challenges.
Here are a few bets I have my eyes on ahead of the 2026 college football season.
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TEXAS TECH (-1.5, -140) TEXAS
Regular-season wins
I think Tech’s baseline is 11-1 given the very favorable Big 12 slate. There is no BYU or Utah, and the Red Raiders’ toughest games are at home — ASU, Houston, Arizona and TCU. A 12-0 slate is not impossible and the chances of it happening are the highest of any P4 team.
If Tech goes 12-0, Texas has to go 11-1 to beat us. If Tech goes 11-1, which is probably more likely, Texas has to go 10-2 to beat us, and I’m not sure if that’s a certainty.
I’d say 9-3 is very much on the table for Texas. The Longhorns have to visit LSU and A&M. Ohio State and Ole Miss come to Austin. And of course, there is the annual Oklahoma game in Dallas.
This is exactly what Sark is talking about. Look at the Texas schedule compared to Tech’s schedule. Texas power rates higher than Tech, but will finish with a worse record.
It’s not sour grapes, it’s just reality.
Fallica’s Pick: 
TTU to Have 1.5 More Wins than Texas (-140)
OREGON (-4.5, +125) VS. NEBRASKA
Regular-season wins
I think Nebraska has 6-6, at best, stamped all over it.
The Huskers are hoping Anthony Colandrea can play more like he did at UNLV than he did during his P4 stop at Virginia. Matt Rhule is 0-fer vs. ranked teams while at Nebraska, 2-10 overall in November, and the Huskers have been dominated by Iowa lately. Nebraska is not going to beat Indiana, Oregon or Ohio State. It will probably lose at Iowa.
And would anyone be shocked if Maryland or Washington went to Lincoln and won?
I wouldn’t.
There is going to be a ton of excitement when the Huskers start 4-0 and then reality will set in. Oregon hasn’t lost to a team which hasn’t played for the national title since 2022. It does not lose games it isn’t supposed to.
I think the Ducks are 11-1 at worst and if that’s the case, then Nebraska has to go 7-5 to beat us.
Fallica’s Pick: 
Oregon to Have 4.5 More Wins than Nebraska (+125)
TOLEDO OVER/UNDER 7.5 WINS
Let’s start with the obvious: The MAC is not a good league, especially outside the top few teams.
I think there’s a bit of an overreaction here to Jason Candle leaving for UConn. Let us not forget, Candle had a knack for losing a bunch of games as a big favorite. I think we have a coaching upgrade with Mike Jacobs — an Ohio guy with Ohio State and Jim Tressel connections that should be able to pluck players out of Ohio high schools.
But that’s the future. Let’s talk about the now.
Jacobs brought a ton of his team with him from Mercer, where he went 20-6 over the last two seasons. You’re telling me a bunch of successful FCS veterans can’t come to the MAC and post an 8-4 record?
I don’t buy it. I’m on the Rockets’ Over.
Fallica’s Pick: Toledo Over 7.5 Wins (-125)
NORTH CAROLINA OVER/UNDER 4.5 WINS (+120)
Consecutive 4–8 seasons are very much on the table in Chapel Hill.
UNC has Miami and Louisville in ACC play (I think those two are the best teams in the ACC), faces Notre Dame and TCU in the non-conference, and picks up a lot of the mid-to-upper tier ACC opponents on its schedule (at Clemson, at Pitt, at Virginia, NC State).
There’s a chance UNC is 1-4 after five games, and what’s the vibe like if that’s the case, knowing you still have Miami and Louisville on the slate? I know there were changes to the offensive coaching staff which should help, but it feels like there’s so much going on off the field that it’s going to be a season of distractions.
We’ll see what happens, but Under feels like the right side here.
