With the All-Star break in the rearview mirror and the playoffs less than two months away, both MLB MVP races are beginning to heat up.
The landscape in both leagues has shifted significantly over the past week, with several contenders making strong pushes while others have seen their cases take a hit.
Let’s take a look at the biggest risers and fallers in the American League and National League MVP races.
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Biggest Risers:
Just a few weeks ago, Shohei Ohtani appeared to be running away with the National League MVP race, sitting as the overwhelming favorite on the oddsboard. While Pete Crow-Armstrong had the second-best odds, he was still viewed as a big long shot at +750. Fast-forward two and a half weeks, and the race has tightened dramatically. After a great start to the second half of the season, Crow-Armstrong has surged to -110, tying Ohtani as the MVP favorite as of Aug. 6.
Crow-Armstrong has been one of baseball’s hottest hitters over the past two months or so. In June, the 24-year-old had a .381 average with 11 home runs, 20 RBIs, and a .468 OBP. In July, PCA hit .278 with six home runs, 17 RBIs, and a .400 on-base percentage. Through the first five days of August, PCA is hitting .412 with two home runs and six RBIs, and his play was a huge reason the Cubs just swept the Dodgers.
Since June, Crow-Armstrong has raised his season batting average from .242 to .288, emerging as a legitimate threat to Ohtani’s MVP campaign.
Yordan Álvarez continues to separate himself in the American League MVP race, putting together what is shaping up to be a historic season. He ranks first in MLB with a .329 batting average, leads the majors with 35 home runs, and sits third with 85 RBIs, officially putting himself in the Triple Crown conversation.
The Astros slugger has only strengthened his case since the All-Star break. He has raised his batting average from .318 to .329 while recording seven multi-hit games, four home runs, and 15 RBIs. As a result, his AL MVP odds have climbed over the past few weeks, moving from -165 all the way to -1500.
Biggest Fallers:
On July 18, Ohtani was the overwhelming -1500 favorite to win the NL MVP. Now, he is no longer the outright favorite as he shares it with PCA. Ohtani’s odds have plummeted to -110, dramatically tightening what once looked like a runaway race.
Since the All-Star break, Ohtani’s batting average has actually gone up from .293 to .297. He also has four home runs and 12 RBIs in that span. However, the biggest reason for his slide has been the lingering soreness in his left knee, which has kept him off the mound. Ohtani has not pitched since July 3, and Dodgers manager Dave Roberts has emphasized that the team plans to be cautious with his return.
For much of the season, the NL MVP race appeared to be all but over. Now, with Pete Crow-Armstrong surging and Ohtani’s injury concerns, the two-man race has gotten a lot more intriguing.
A few weeks ago, Bobby Witt Jr. had the third-best odds to win MVP at +500. Now, after missing time with lower back tightness/spasm and recording just three hits in his first five games since returning, his odds have fallen to +6500.
Witt Jr. has played in only five games since the ASG, going 3-17 with five strikeouts in that span.
Let’s check out the odds to win AL and NL MVP at FanDuel Sportsbook as of Aug. 6.
Odds to Win NL MVP
Shohei Ohtani: -110 (bet $10 to win $19.09 total)
Pete Crow-Armstrong: -110 (bet $10 to win $19.09 total)
Odds to Win AL MVP
Yordan Alvarez: -1500 (bet $10 to win $10.67 total)
Junior Caminero: +700 (bet $10 to win $80 total)
Ben Rice: +2700 (bet $10 to win $280 total)
Bobby Witt Jr.: +6500 (bet $10 to win $660 total)
