I can’t think of a better way to end the first full week of the new year than by watching football, football and then more football.
I’m telling you, these NFL wild-card matchups could get very interesting. In fact, I’m even sold on a couple underdogs to pull the upsets.
Check out what I’m on this weekend.
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No. 5 Rams @ No. 4 Panthers
I think the Rams will likely win this game by around 10 points, but it’s too risky to take them to cover. It’s an NFL playoff game and 10 points is way too much.
So I’m playing their back-up running back Blake Corum’s Over rushing prop.
One angle I often look toward when I believe a team will win by double digits is the back-up running back to eclipse his rushing number because of the game script.
A team with a lead will run the ball more often, especially late in the game. Then there are other opportunities for backup backs to gain yards on third down and at the end of long drives that help their rushing prop go over the number.
It’s also helpful that the Rams use Corum extensively, even if they aren’t winning big in a matchup. After the Rams’ bye week, his production picked up. In the Rams’ last 10 games, Corum has gotten at least 10 carries in six of those contests and no fewer than six in any game. He’s gone over 43 yards in seven of those 10 contests, including 81 yards against the Panthers six weeks ago.
I believe L.A. will control the line of scrimmage and use Corum to help it do that.
PICK: Blake Corum Over 43.5 rushing yards
No. 6 Bills @ No. 3 Jaguars
The wrong team is favored in this game and I will gladly back the Jaguars in this one.
This is a Josh Allen tax, where books have shaded this number toward the Bills because of him.
Buffalo undoubtedly is in this game because of Allen, but he’s also got the benefit of the best rushing attack in the NFL. The Jaguars have the No. 1 rushing defense in the league and if the Bills cannot run the football, they are in trouble.
Additionally, the Bills don’t have the receivers or passing game to score a bunch of points against one of the best defenses in the league. Allen will need to make some wild YOLO plays to keep them in the game.
Jacksonville, on the other hand, has the best point differential since Week 11. That’s due to the defense playing well, but more importantly, quarterback Trevor Lawrence stopped doing dumb stuff. It felt like once or twice a game, you were left wondering if Lawrence even knew how to play the position.
All of that is gone now.
He’s cut down on his turnovers, and he’s been more efficient. He’s letting offense come to him, and he’s also been using his legs more often. Lawrence is tied for the NFL lead in rushing touchdowns from the QB position since Week 11.
Back to the Bills.
They have a poor defense, and it shows most often in defending the run. Their defense ranks 31st in rushing DVOA and the Jaguars have no issue using the run game as their offense. Travis Etienne had 260 rushes for the Jaguars and averaged 4.3 yards per carry.
The Jags have a clear advantage with their rushing attack.
Ultimately, I like this Jacksonville team right now. The rushing defense can shut down the Bills’ James Cook and force everything to be about Buffalo’s passing game. Then, the Jags’ rushing attack can wear down that poor Bills’ run defense.
Lawrence can continue to take the shots when they are available, but otherwise, he can just play the game as designed.
Give me the Jaguars.
PICK: Jaguars (+1.5) to lose by fewer than 1.5 points or win outright
No. 7 Chargers @ No. 2 Patriots
I am fading the New England Patriots the entire postseason.
They’ve had a fantastic campaign in Mike Vrabel’s first year, second-year quarterback Drake Maye is firmly in the MVP discussion, and the Pats secured the AFC East crown and the second seed for the playoffs.
You can only play the schedule in front of you and the Patriots won those games. However, it’s the easiest schedule of any playoff team since 1999.
The opponent-against-win percentage was .380. They ended up playing a bunch of teams with backup quarterbacks as well. The Patriots beat a single team with a winning record and went just 1-2 against teams over .500.
Depending on where you rank the Bills in the hierarchy, this Chargers team is either the first- or second-best team the Patriots have played all season. And that could be problematic for this young Pats squad.
The Chargers’ defense ranks first in opponent passer rating, and it is also good against the run. We know Bolts’ QB Justin Herbert is a magnet for pressure. But second in the NFL for the most pressures faced is Maye. He’s been fantastic against pressure this year, so let’s credit him for that. But playoff pressure against the Chargers’ pass defense hits a tad differently than the Jets.
L.A.’s offensive line is a mess and anyone who’s watched football all season has seen it. The Chargers’ tackles have been out most of the season and their center is awful. It’s not a good situation for Herbert. However, I don’t think the Patriots’ defensive line poses as many issues as other groups who have terrorized the Chargers, and PFF grades the Patriots’ pass rush as 18th.
Harbaugh will focus on running the ball and keeping Herbert out of clear passing situations.
I do believe the Patriots are live to lose this game, but I will settle for taking the Chargers with the points.
PICK: Chargers (+3.5) to lose by fewer than 3.5 points or win outright
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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