The NFL regular season has come and gone, and after 272 games, we enter what looks to be a wide-open postseason.
The Chiefs, Lions, and Ravens were among the favorites to win it all come February, and all three teams now must wait until September to play their next games. If the playoffs are anywhere near as unpredictable as the regular season was, football fans are in for a wild January.
As we do at the beginning of each week, let’s pinpoint a couple of underdogs who might be poised to pull an upset this week.
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Oregon vs. Indiana
Last season, Oregon went undefeated in the regular season and won the Big 10 title before losing in the Playoff to an Ohio State team that it had beaten during the regular season.
Is it possible Oregon flips the script and sends Indiana home the same way?
The Hoosiers looked unbeatable in a dominant quarterfinal win over Alabama, and have already beaten the Ducks on the road this season. But, as we saw last year, beating a very good team twice in the same season can be challenging.
When these teams met in October, Oregon was a 7-point favorite. Now they are catching over a field goal. Granted, that regular-season meeting was in Oregon, and Indiana certainly deserves a considerable upgrade for what it has achieved since. But for as great as they have looked recently, keep in mind, the Hoosiers needed a last-minute touchdown to beat a mediocre Penn State team by three, won by just five over Iowa, and narrowly escaped Ohio State thanks to a short missed field goal and goal line stand.
Some Oregon players made comments after losing to Indiana that the loss woke them up, and that they were perhaps overconfident after a big win on the road against a then healthy Penn State team.
It’s scary to bet against Indiana right now, but I think there is value on Oregon on Friday night.
PICK: Oregon (+3.5, +140 ML) to lose by fewer than 3.5 or win outright
Chargers @ Patriots
The last time the Patriots hosted a playoff game was in January 2020. Months later, Tom Brady would become a free agent and eventually, a Tampa Bay Buccaneer. The Patriots are hoping this game goes better than that one did, as the Mike Vrabel-led Titans upset the home team that Saturday night, pre-COVID.
At 14-3, the Pats might have the league MVP in Drake Maye, and Coach of the Year in Vrabel, but could they be one-and-done in the playoffs?
The Chargers, although decimated on the offensive line, present some major threats as an underdog here. They, too, enter January with an elite coach-quarterback duo in Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaugh. They also have one of the better defenses in the league, ranked 10th in DVOA, compared to the Patriots, who rank 23rd.
Despite the gaudy record, the Patriots have only beaten two teams this year that made the playoffs — the Panthers back in September and the Bills back in October.
The big weakness for the Chargers is their offensive line, which lost its two best players to injury, but that might not haunt them against the Patriots, who were 26th in the league in sacks.
I’ll take the more battle-tested Chargers to pull the upset.
PICK: Chargers (+3.5, +150 ML) to lose by fewer than 3.5 or win outright
Will Hill, a contributor on the Bear Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.
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