[NEW YORK] Central banks may hold significant amounts of Bitcoin and gold by 2030, thanks to growing institutional popularity and a weakening US dollar, according to Deutsche Bank.
Marion Laboure, a London-based senior economist at the German multinational investment bank, and analyst Camilla Siazon wrote in a recent report that, for central banks, a Bitcoin allocation could reflect a new, modern “cornerstone of financial security” that mirrors gold’s role in the 20th century. Their research comes as demand for both Bitcoin and gold reach record highs, with US tariff-driven uncertainty and geopolitical risk driving investors to hedge against inflation and prepare themselves for a future in which traditional fiat currency plays a smaller role.
Gold, long viewed by proponents as a safe-haven, has smashed the US$4,000-an-ounce barrier, while Bitcoin is trading just below a record high reached earlier in the week. While its journey to becoming a main feature of central bank reserves has not been a linear one, researchers say demand for gold began to take a stronger hold on central bank balance sheets after the 2008 financial crisis.
This “flight to safety” practiced by institutional investors drove central banks to become net purchasers of gold in 2010. Today, thanks to rising trade uncertainty and market volatility, “gold is back”, wrote Laboure, citing, among other signs, over 36,000 tonnes of gold held in central bank reserves globally.
Gold’s run has been largely driven by de-dollarisation – or a decrease in dependence on the US currency – which has also helped Bitcoin, the Deutsche Bank analysts said. “The US dollar’s share in global reserves slid from 60 per cent in 2000 to 41 per cent in 2025,” wrote Laboure. This decline has jump-started record inflows into gold and Bitcoin ETFs, which reached record total net flows of US$5 billion and US$4.7 billion in June.
“The behaviour we saw towards gold in the 20th century has clear parallels with how policymakers are now debating Bitcoin,” Laboure wrote. She sees Bitcoin as another asset enjoying record performance and increasing attention as a potential, “though still highly debated”, reserve holding.
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Not all observers agree. In a recent report, JPMorgan analysts say that stablecoins, a type of decentralised digital currency that is usually pegged to other assets, could unlock new demand for the US dollar. While this is dependent on the amount of overseas investment, JPMorgan analysts estimate stablecoin market growth could translate into US$1.4 trillion of additional demand for the US dollar by 2027. This brings Deutsche Bank’s vision for both gold and Bitcoin as strategic reserve assets into question.
“Neither Bitcoin nor gold will entirely replace the US dollar,” writes Laboure. She says in the report that digital assets should remain “complementary” to national currencies in the context of central bank reserve strategy. In this, fading volatility and increasing regulatory support in countries such as the US and China signal increasing confidence to the broader market. BLOOMBERG
