One party has held court over Welsh politics for more than a century.
Welsh Labour MPs have been the largest group sent to Westminster in every general election since 1922 – and the party has been in government in the country for more than a quarter of a century.
But if the polls are accurate, Labour’s long-standing grip on politics in Wales is fading.
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Plaid Cymru and Reform UK are running almost neck and neck, while Labour trails significantly. A recent YouGov poll put Plaid Cymru on 30%, Reform UK on 29% and Labour at 14%.
Plaid Cymru, heading into its conference this weekend, can sense the mood for change in Wales – and intends to show it is ready for government.
Polling last month put Plaid Cymru and Reform UK almost neck and neck in Wales, with just one point between them – while Labour trails
The party hopes to capitalise on disillusioned Labour voters feeling let down by their party under Sir Keir Starmer, and use this to tackle the rise of Reform – which is key to getting it into power.
In his leader’s speech, Rhun ap Iorwerth is expected to position Plaid Cymru as Wales’s progressive force, and the only party capable of taking on Reform.
He will say: “We’re not here to act as Labour’s conscience. We are not here to repair Labour. We are here to replace them.
“If you’ve never voted for Plaid Cymru before, the time is now.
“The time is now to stop Reform and elect a government more radical, more ambitious, more impatient to bring about positive change than any which has gone before it. A government of progress and of progressive values.”
One in five Labour voters in Wales intend to back Plaid Cymru at the Senedd elections in 2026, according to YouGov. But almost a quarter of Labour voters remain undecided on who to endorse.
The topic of independence will no doubt be a contentious issue for voters who are angry about decisions made by Labour in Wales and Westminster, but do not want an independent Wales.
Plaid Cymru supporters outside the Senedd on 8 October
Mr ap Iorwerth has ruled out an independence referendum if Plaid Cymru wins next year’s elections, signalling that he doesn’t want the campaign to centre on independence.
Throughout the conference, Plaid Cymru will position itself as ready to govern. But voters will expect clear plans for the NHS, education, and the economy. The question for the party, both during this conference and over the coming months, will be whether its proposals can win over Labour voters in its quest to beat Reform.
But Plaid Cymru’s challenge to Nigel Farage’s party faces a critical test sooner than May. Instead, its next battle will be in the Caerphilly Senedd by-election on 23 October.
Historically a Labour stronghold at both Senedd and Westminster levels, Caerphilly has consistently returned Labour representatives, with Plaid Cymru as the main opposition at Senedd elections.
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However, this election introduces a new dynamic, as Reform has emerged as a credible challenger, poised to disrupt the traditional two-party contest.
Coming second at this election won’t be a total loss for Plaid Cymru.
If it can come second at the by-election, it will prove the point Mr ap Iorwerth will be making at the conference in Swansea: that his party is the only credible anti-Reform vote.
The full list of candidates standing at the Caerphilly by-election:
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Labour – Richard Tunnicliffe
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Plaid Cymru – Lindsay Whittle
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Reform UK – Llŷr Powell
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Conservative – Gareth Potter
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Green Party – Gareth Hughes
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Gwlad – Anthony Cook
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UKIP – Roger Quilliam
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Liberal Democrats – Steve Aicheler
