LAWMAKERS in the US are careening toward a shutdown of the federal government that could deprive policymakers, business leaders and investors of critical data they need to assess the state of the US economy.
Many federal operations will pause and non-essential employees will be furloughed or fired if lawmakers cannot reach an agreement by the time the current fiscal year ends on Tuesday (Sep 30). That would likely delay the release of gold standard government economic releases, including – first and foremost – the latest jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Given uncertainty about the impact that US President Donald Trump’s policies are having on the American economy, federal gauges of employment, inflation and spending are all the more important. Any postponement could hamper key policy decisions, such as whether the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates again when it meets next month.
“You don’t want to be flying blind in a foggy environment,” said Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon.
Should the government shut down after Tuesday, the first major release poised to be affected is the BLS employment report, scheduled for Oct 3. The agency’s marquee report on inflation – the consumer price index (CPI) – would be the next big one on the docket, while reports on retail sales and new residential construction from the Census Bureau are also at risk of being delayed.
Fed officials cut interest rates at their September meeting for the first time this year, largely based on evidence of a cooler labour market; policymakers are keenly watching for any signs of further deterioration.
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The BLS has not said whether it will still release the September jobs report on Friday if the government is shut down, but the latest contingency plan from March indicates all data collections and scheduled releases would cease.
The BLS had to delay publication of the jobs report and CPI when the government was shut down in 2013. There was a shutdown more recently in 2018 to 2019, but prior funding ensured that the bureau could release major data as planned.
There is third-party economic data that, while generally considered not as comprehensive as government data, will still be available. They include measures of private payrolls from ADP Research and existing-home sales from the National Association of Realtors.
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The Fed next meets on Oct 28 to 29, and it would be harder to justify another rate cut without having the latest government numbers, said Stephen Stanley, chief US economist at Santander US Capital Markets. Some officials are already wary of doing so and want to see more data.
“There’s private data and Fed officials can canvas their contacts and at least get a sense of what’s going on, but it does get tougher if you don’t have the big aggregate data that we tend to depend on,” Stanley said.
Neil Bradley, chief policy officer at the US Chamber of Commerce, said a government shutdown is not going to push the US economy into a recession, but it will have a cost and add to the uncertainty that companies and business leaders are already dealing with.
“By playing this fight out, let’s understand that we’re undermining the economy and that we’re dampening growth by raising uncertainty,” Bradley said during a webinar on Sep 23.
