Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
An NFL front office veteran once stressed to me that Week 1 will expose your weakness in this league.
There are at least two squads that were exposed in one way or another last week, and now, I’m eyeing them.
Let’s look at a couple of Week 2 contests that I believe are worth a wager.
Eagles @ Chiefs
The Eagles secondary was an issue, and the lack of a Chiefs pass rush was featured once against the Chargers.
Rashee Rice is out due to suspension and Xavier Worthy is out due to injury, so the Chiefs’ receiver depth is being tested. With that, I have trouble believing that K.C. will be able to make the Eagles pay for their secondary concerns.
I do, however, believe the Eagles will take advantage of the Chiefs’ lack of a pass rush.
In their Super Bowl loss to Philadelphia, lots of the focus was on the Chiefs’ offensive failures. It was part Eagles domination, part Kansas City looking lost.
Nonetheless, it was a beatdown, with the Eagles up by over 30 points in the third quarter.
One matchup that wasn’t highlighted enough was the Eagles offensive-line domination and Kansas City’s lack of a pass rush when it didn’t bring extra defenders. The Chiefs defensive line did not touch Jalen Hurts the entire game, mainly because Philly made sure to find Chris Jones and then just let the rest of the offensive line handle one-on-ones.
In Kansas City’s loss to the Chargers on Friday night, it was more of the same.
When the Chiefs just rushed four, they barely got to Herbert. If Jones doesn’t win immediately, there’s just no chance for success for Kansas City’s pass rush unit. The Chiefs have to blitz to hit or pressure the quarterback, and while that does create a mess at times for the opposing offense, it also leaves opportunities for big plays with one-on-one coverage behind it.
Justin Herbert’s last touchdown pass was a product of this recipe. L.A. blocked up the pressure and Herbert found a target open in man coverage.
I don’t like this matchup for the Chiefs defense and I believe the Eagles will score often in this game.
PICK: Eagles Over 23.5 points scored
Herd Hierarchy for Week 2: Packers and Rams rise, Eagles and Chiefs fall
Patriots @ Dolphins
I’m going to fade the Dolphins until it’s no longer profitable, which will probably be around the time head coach Mike McDaniel gets fired.
Miami looked completely unprepared and unmotivated in that Week 1 loss to the Colts. It was down 30-0 early in the fourth quarter to an Indianapolis team led by Daniel Jones.
The Dolphins had only 12 offensive first downs and 211 yards. Tua Tagovailoa was 14-for-23 passing with two interceptions. Miami also fumbled once and failed to convert a fourth down. It only had seven offensive possessions because it could not stop the Colts offense.
The Patriots weren’t great in a loss to the Raiders, but they looked far more competent than the Dolphins. I also trust Mike Vrabel to make adjustments and have his team prepared for battle.
Often, the biggest adjustments occur between Weeks 1 and 2. Some of the younger players who struggled in the first week should play better in Week 2.
I’d imagine the Patriots will run the ball more. Drake Maye attempting 46 passes is not part of their recipe for success, and running the ball will be successful against the Dolphins.
PICK: Patriots (+1.5) to lose by fewer than 1.5 points, or win outright
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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